幾天前，ARM首席執(zhí)行官Warren East在財(cái)報(bào)會表示,，董事會與股東長期以來一直想買AMD,，由于后者目前正重估戰(zhàn)略，眼下機(jī)會大增,。

 

要在3年前,，這定會引來嘲笑,。因?yàn)椋?dāng)時(shí)ARM與AMD一個身在通信市場,，一個身在PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC" title="PC">PC領(lǐng)域,，誰也不買誰的賬。

 

那Warren East是借機(jī)給投資人講故事嗎,？要知道,，一個多月來，ARM股價(jià)大幅飆升,。

 

筆者認(rèn)為,，ARM買下AMD可能未必成行，人們在批評英特爾移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)戰(zhàn)略受困于處理器功耗難題時(shí),，可能對ARM移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)現(xiàn)有優(yōu)勢地位過于樂觀了,。或者說,，他的話,，變相傳達(dá)的是ARM的一種危機(jī)感。面對英特爾,、IPS" title="MIPS">MIPS等強(qiáng)敵,，它不能等著對手突破低功耗技術(shù)障礙，必須盡快拓展新出路,。

 

過去幾年,，ARM在物理IP、工具等方面做了垂直整合,，但在64位處理器技術(shù)及高主頻方面并未顯出優(yōu)勢,，目前還缺乏主流操作系統(tǒng)微軟的更多支持。

 

上述這些是AMD的強(qiáng)項(xiàng),。AMD雖被英特爾長期壓制,，但卻是PC產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈最大的制衡力量。業(yè)內(nèi)甚至認(rèn)為,，AMD之所以落后英特爾,，非技術(shù)所致，而是商業(yè)與運(yùn)營不力,。

 

ARM如能買下AMD，既能掌控手機(jī)與平板產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈,，也能滲透至少20%~30%的PC市場,，等于說通吃產(chǎn)業(yè)上游了。

 

但這合理的商業(yè)邏輯卻不大可行,。業(yè)內(nèi)有觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為,，主要或許是財(cái)力不夠,，ARM年?duì)I收僅6億美元左右，屬于“小而美”企業(yè),，AMD則是個大塊頭,。但筆者認(rèn)為，上述ARM收購AMD不可行并不在于財(cái)務(wù)問題——依ARM地位,，獲得財(cái)務(wù)杠桿不難——而最重要的是各自的模式：ARM為授權(quán)模式,，即將架構(gòu)與專利授權(quán)給許多處理器設(shè)計(jì)企業(yè)，而英特爾則是自己設(shè)計(jì)處理器,；ARM收購AMD,，等于跟自己原合作伙伴打架。另一方面,，AMD架構(gòu)來自英特爾,，專利權(quán)自然掌握在英特爾手中，ARM收購AMD,，等于為英特爾打工,。

 

筆者去年曾分析過英特爾收購ARM不具可行性，理由異曲同工,。如果成真,，在ARM授權(quán)模式下生活的許多處理器企業(yè)將直面生死——除非英特爾改變商業(yè)模式，走向開放授權(quán),，但短期內(nèi)幾乎看不到任何希望,。截至目前，英特爾架構(gòu)的處理器企業(yè)僅4家,。

 

ARM與AMD之間是否就沒了變通合作機(jī)會,？當(dāng)然有，而且同樣會讓英特爾緊張,。那就是AMD主動出擊,，既沿用英特爾架構(gòu)，也購買ARM授權(quán),。前者用來打擊英特爾PC產(chǎn)業(yè),，后者用來拓展智能手機(jī)與平板市場。由于AMD2009年已淡化制造業(yè),，拋棄了類似英特爾的IDM模式,，這并不妨害現(xiàn)有運(yùn)營模式。

 

因此,，筆者認(rèn)為,，與其說是收購，不如說是合作與融合,。前不久,，AMD已經(jīng)傳出或?qū)①徺IARM授權(quán),，以拓展平板市場。事實(shí)上,，AMD的顯示處理器中,，早有ARM技術(shù)。

 

如果“ARM+AMD”的雙A合作成真,，并走向深入,，借助AMD的處理器設(shè)計(jì)力量、基于微軟系統(tǒng)的方案以及PC產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈,，有望快速形成真正顛覆手機(jī)與PC產(chǎn)業(yè)的核心力量,。事實(shí)上，英特爾已經(jīng)采用相像的動作,。去年它收購了英飛凌的無線業(yè)務(wù),，而后者的核心產(chǎn)品正是基于ARM的架構(gòu)。

 

大概會有人問,，蘋果iPad已在手機(jī)與PC交融地帶讓人驚奇,，還有什么值得期待的呢？那不過是一種過渡形態(tài),，其中的處理器基于ARM架構(gòu),，連蘋果自身都承認(rèn)并非最理想的產(chǎn)品?？雌饋?，一個真正的產(chǎn)業(yè)融合時(shí)代還沒有到來，到時(shí)候誰能勝出,，要看現(xiàn)在誰能將對立陣營的資源融合得更快,。